How Players Deal with a Bad Shooting Night

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 21, 2008 under NBA Stats | Be the First to Comment

Every player reacts differently to having an off night shooting. Some will let it get to their heads and their entire game falls apart while others are able to focus on getting their teammates involved or hitting the boards. We decided to take a look at how players reacted last season to having a game where they shot under 30% from the field. How were their assist, rebound, and turnover numbers affected? To keep everything relevant, we only looked at players who averaged at least 10 points per game during the season and who had at least 10 games where they shot under 30% from the field.

On a per minute basis, we found that rebounding averages were the same in bad games as during the season, but assists dropped 3% and turnovers increased 4%. So, that wasn’t very interesting, but some of the individual players stood out. Linas Kleiza of the Denver Nuggets must have pleased coach George Karl with his ability to tune out bad shooting performances and increase his rebounding by 29%, his assists by 38%, and decrease his turnovers by 36%! Although he doesn’t record many assists to begin with (1.2 per game), the increase in rebounding is interesting.

If you’re not impressed by Kleiza because he isn’t enough of an impact player, how about Hedo Turkoglu? Hedo increased his rebounds by 24%, his assists by 18%, and decreased his turnovers by 6% in bad shooting performances.

Ok, so now you’re wondering, who are the guys who completely stink up the joint when their shot isn’t falling. Sam Cassell falls into that category with his turnovers going up 22%, rebounds down 37%, and assists down 14%. There’s not much trash to talk when Sam I Am is having a bad game, apparently. Grant Hill, surprisingly, isn’t much better with his turnovers going up 16%, rebounds down 14%, and assists down 34% in bad games. Josh Smith is pretty consistent with his rebounding and assist numbers in bad games, but he turns the ball over, pathetically, 51% more often when he’s having a bad shooting night! (Sorry for posting this while you’re on the free agent market, Josh)

The turnover numbers are the most interesting here so let’s look at the increase in turnovers for the 10 biggest culprits (of letting their poor shooting get to their head):

Coach, you might want to bench these guys when their shot isn’t falling (except Pierce, he might get hot)!

Newspaper Gaffe – Andris Biedrins Gets No Respect

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 15, 2008 under Atlanta Hawks, General NBA, Golden State Warriors | Read the First Comment

After leading the league in Field Goal Percentage this year, Warriors center Andris Biedrins is being courted by both the Warriors and Pistons in the free agent/trade market this off-season. Good numbers, good demand…makes you think Biedrins might get some respect, but not in Myrtle Beach where the Sun News made this little gaffe back in March:

Yeah, that “whoever” leading the league in FG% is Mr. Biedrins. C’mon, Sun News, we’d understand if you did that to Erick Dampier, but Biedrins is an up-and-coming player. You’re better than that!

The 10 Most Consistent Shooters in the NBA

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 14, 2008 under General NBA, NBA Stats | Be the First to Comment

A few weeks back we looked at the most consistent scorers in the NBA and found that Corey Maggette of the LA Clippers topped the list. But, what about the most consistent shooters? Everyone has an off night every now and then, but which players are the most reliable to hit their shots? Once again, we used the coefficient of variation (CV) statistic to determine the answer to that question. We took 3 point shots out of the picture and just looked at 2 pointers. Using a minimum of 50 games played, here’s what we found:

The 10 Most Consistent 2-Point Shooters

Surprised not to see more big guys on the list? Overall, bigs post higher shooting percentages than guards, but apparently they aren’t as consistent, although Amare Stoudemire and Kevin Garnett are the notable exceptions here. Hakim Warrick and Monta Ellis are the guys who really stand out on this list though. Warrick was highly consistent at hitting 50% of his shots despite putting up less than 10 shots per game. That’s a difficult thing to do, but it shows that Warrick was ready when his opportunities came. Ellis, though, might even be more impressive when you look at his stats as a whole. He’s only 6’3″, but is able to shoot 53% and shoots it consistently. Of course, being able to dunk like he can has to help your shooting percentage:

Most of the other guys on the list shoot high volumes so it’s a bit easier to get in rhythm and get close to your shooting percentage.

Oh, and the most inconsistent shooter? Louis Williams of the 76ers. Right behind him? Not surprisingly, Jason Kidd.

Clippers…still Cursed

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 9, 2008 under General NBA, LA Clippers | Be the First to Comment

Just days ago Clipper fans across the globe (or, more realistically, across some areas of LA) were contemplating how far the Clippers might go in next season’s playoffs. Today those fans are hearing that Elton Brand is planning to leave the franchise for The City of Brotherly Love, a move that, no matter how unexpected, can’t be that surprising to fans of the NBA’s most cursed franchise.

The Clippers were a laughingstock in the 90s and haven’t fared too much better this decade despite short bursts of hope. It seemed LA’s 2nd team was finally turning the corner when they went 45-37 and qualified for the playoffs in 2005-06. The Clips couldn’t build on that momentum though and failed to make the playoffs each of the past two seasons, with Brand missing almost all of last season. Still, this didn’t look like your 90′s Clippers as the franchise enticed Baron Davis back to his hometown just a week ago. Sure, they’d lose Corey Maggette, but every team has financial constraints and a Davis-Brand combo could be lethal. But, now it looks like we’ll never see that 1-2 punch with Brand bolting for Philadelphia.

A look back at recent Clippers history:

• Clippers draft Darius Miles 3rd overall in the 2000 NBA Draft. No high school player had been picked as high in the draft before. He played 2 seasons with the Clippers, never averaging more than 10 points a game.
• In the summer of 2004, Kobe Bryant flirts with the idea of jumping ship to the Clippers before re-signing with the Lakers.
• Clippers draft Shaun Livingston 4th overall in the 2004 NBA Draft. To date, he’s missed 101 of 246 regular season games due to injuries.
• Elton Brand ruptures his Achilles tendon in August 2007 and misses nearly the entire 2007-08 season.

Just another day for Clippers fans.

Who are really the best rebounders and shot blockers?

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 8, 2008 under NBA Stats | Be the First to Comment

If I were to ask you to name the best rebounders and shotblockers in the NBA, you’d probably rattle off some names like Dwight Howard, Marcus Camby, and other players on the league leaders list, and rightfully so…but, what if they didn’t have their height advantage? What if Dwight Howard was 6’5″? Would he still be a good rebounder? Better than a 6’5″ Nate Robinson? Of course we will never know the actual answer to this, but we can make some guesstimates. I took a look at the height of all the players in the league, their rebounding abilities, and shotblocking prowess to come up with two prediction models. Basically, you tell the model how tall a guy is and it’ll tell you how many rebounds he should get and how many blocks he should get. If you’re Nate Robinson, expectations are low, but if you’re Dwight Howard you’re gonna have to put up some pretty big numbers.

So who did better than expected according to the model? Here are the top 10 rebounders with the percentages indicating how many rebounds they got per 40 minutes compared to how many they were expected to pull down:

So you can see Dwight Howard is a great rebounder no matter how you look at it. Here are the numbers for blocks:

Mostly big guys who you’d expect there, but Jason Maxiell at 6’7″ is impressive. Ben Wallace is still looking good and almost certainly would have topped the list a few years ago. And, don’t underestimate the shotblocking abilities of Dwyane Wade and Delonte West, both whom just qualified for the list with 0.76 Blocks per 40 minutes. The minimum requirements were 0.75 Blocks per 40 minutes and 1500 minutes. For rebounds, they were 5 Rebounds per 40 minutes and 1500 minutes.

Perhaps the most impressive player from these top 10 lists is Marcus Camby, ranking on both lists despite that fact that the model has high expectations for a 6’11″ player such as himself. I’d guess he would drop off the lists if we adjusted for wingspan, though.

If you’re interested, a similar analysis was done for the 2004-05 season at lowpost.net. The analysis over there factored in height as well as body mass index (BMI) and even devotes some special attention to the Knicks. It’s worth checking out.

Wizards Sign Arenas….at a discount?

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 4, 2008 under General NBA | Be the First to Comment

Gilbertology struck again yesterday as we hear that Gilbert Arenas will actually be signing with the Wizards for less than what he was offered.  Agent Zero, apparently, will accept a 6-year deal for $111 million as opposed to the $124 million he was offered in order to give the Wizards more cap space.

“I’m basically giving back $16 million,” Arenas told the Washington Times. “This is in line with what I’ve been saying the whole time. You see players take max deals and they financially bind their teams. I don’t wanna be one of those players and three years down the road your team is strapped and can’t do anything about it.”

Just in case you don’t remember, Arenas said in his blog back in January, ” I want to get a six-year deal. I want to be a max player.”  Well, he’s not going to be a max player if he’s signing at a discount, but what he’s doing makes a lot of sense and we wish more guys would do it.

Arenas also said in that same blog, “For me to look elsewhere, I want to go find a championship team who’s a championship contender. I’m going to have to take less money, but I’m willing to do that to win a ring.”  So does Arenas think the Wizards are a championship contender?  Well, they just re-signed Jamison and it looks like they’ll have pretty much the same team as last year which puts them in the playoffs but not much further.  Thanks to Arenas Washington has some extra cash, but probably not enough to become a championship team.  It’s more likely that Arenas decided he’d rather take a chance on being the star of a championship team rather than go play alongside Kobe or someone.

In any case, maybe some players will be willing to take less cash on occasion.  It seems like it’ll work out for Arenas and the last we checked, Latrell Sprewell is still trying to feed his family.

So long, Seattle. Sonics move to Oklahoma City.

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 3, 2008 under General NBA | Be the First to Comment

So yesterday you probably heard that the Sonics are moving to Oklahoma City. At least, they are sort of moving. The team name and colors will actually stay in Seattle while Oklahoma City gets the current team and presumably needs to find a new nickname. I saw NBA.com featuring a pic of a smiling Kevin Durant. I’m not so sure the entire roster will be quite as happy about moving from a world class city to, well, Oklahoma City. No offense to OKC, but it’s just a big change. Oklahoma City, of course, did a fantastic job while hosting the Hornets and is clearly ready for an NBA franchise. Seattle fans need not give up hope though as a new franchise has a pretty good possibility of re-emerging in the Key City.

“We understand that city, county, and state officials are currently discussing a plan to substantially rebuild KeyArena for the sum of $300 million,” Stern said in a statement. “If this funding were authorized, we believe KeyArena could properly be renovated into a facility that meets NBA standards relating to revenue generation, fan amenities, team facilities, and the like.”

So today we reminisce on the memories of the franchise’s lone 1979 championship, the dunking highlights of Shawn Kemp, the valiant effort in the 1996 NBA Finals, and trading the draft rights to Scottie Pippen for those of Olden Polynice.

Good bye, Seattle.

Free Agency Update

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 2, 2008 under Free Agency, Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers | Be the First to Comment

Yesterday was the first day of the NBA free agency period and here’s what you need to know:

• Baron Davis has reportedly reached an agreement to sign with the Clippers. This is a bit surprising considering the professional e-mail he had previously sent to ESPN: “”Clipps r possible. G State is where I wanna b”. Now the Clippers have to worry about re-signing Elton Brand. They’re going to have to let Corey Maggette go to pull that off and Brand will have to take a paycut, but it looks like he is willing to do so.
• Gilbert Arenas received a max offer from the Warriors. So, Gil’s old team is going after him again now that they’ve lost their point guard. The Warriors are young and fun, which fits Arenas’ style, but it’s hard to see him choosing them over Washington.

Where do you think Davis, Arenas, Brand, and Maggette will wind up?

Introducing The Lineup

Posted by HoopsAvenue on June 22, 2008 under General NBA | Be the First to Comment

HoopsAvenue is proud to introduce the exclusive daily NBA trivia game, The Lineup. The game is really simple and if you haven’t checked it out yet, here’s an example:

Which of these four players recorded the most points in the 2007-2008 regular season?

Then, you click the picture of who you think it is!

So, who did you pick? If you said Lebron James, sorry you are incorrect! The answer to this one is actually Kobe Bryant (even though he averaged less points per game than Lebron, he played 7 more games).

Now, this one was actually fairly easy since the 4 players shown are easy to identify. Remember that the trivia question is randomly generated and it might give you any 4 players in the NBA. And, it’s not always going to ask you about points. Rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and even minutes played are all fair game. It’s safe to say you need to know your stuff if you want to do well in the game.

The cool thing about the game is that it keeps track your stats, which includes how often you get the correct answer and how fast you get it (oh, did you plan on looking it up on the player pages?). Of course you will need to have an account here at HoopsAvenue for us to track your stats. Click here to register if you haven’t already. You can play as many times as you want each day, but keep in mind only your first attempt of the day will be scored. The rest of your attempts are just for practice (it can get addictive so make sure you don’t burn your food if you’re cooking).

Click here to play The Lineup!

Do consistent minutes make a player consistent?

Posted by HoopsAvenue on June 16, 2008 under NBA Stats | 2 Comments to Read

“He’s their most consistent player.”

It’s a quote you hear rather often watching NBA telecasts. Usually it seems pretty accurate and its hard to argue with, but do our eyes deceive us? I decided to take a look at who the most consistent players in the league really are. And, then I’ll analyze whether or not coaches can make their team more consistent by playing their guys consistent minutes.

First, a word on the methodology. If you ever took statistics, you’ve heard of the standard deviation (SD), and, everyone knows what an average is. Well, if you took even more statistics, you might have heard of the coefficient of variation (CV), which is simply the SD divided by the average. The CV tells us how widely dispersed a sample is, or, on the flip side, how consistent it is. A low CV means the sample is consistent. The useful property of the CV, for our purposes, is that it can be compared between players even when their averages aren’t close (ie. Lebron James‘ scoring consistency can be compared to Kwame Brown‘s), and, thus, we can use it to rank every player in the league in terms of consistency.

So, without further ado, here are the 10 most consistent scorers in the 2007-08 regular season:

As you probably would have guessed, the highest scorers are generally the most consistent scorers as they can count on their shot attempts from game to game while role players take what they can get. It would be very unlikely a player could average, say 10 points per game, and consistently do that every game. Kevin Garnett and Andre Iguodala, though, stand out a bit given their lower averages, relatively speaking. If a longer list were listed, you would see that Chris Kaman is the only guy in the top 30 who averages less than 15 PPG.

And, now here are the 10 players who get the most consistent minutes:

So, interestingly, there is an overlap of two players who are on both top 10 lists (Andre Iguodala and Lebron James). Of course these players are both stars and you would expect them to rank in at least the top 30, but it’s curious why other stars aren’t ranking. Kevin Martin, for example, was the 7th leading scorer this season, but ranked only 44th in scoring consistency. Could this possibly have something do to with the fact that he got only the 29th most consistent minutes in the league? Would Kings coach Reggie Theus get more consistency out of his top scorer if he were to give him more consistent minutes? Not surprisingly, the injury-prone Tracy McGrady ranked the least consistent scorer of anyone averaging over 20 PPG.

This all leads us to the question of whether or not coaches would be wise to play their players on a more consistent basis to get more consistent scoring output. What is the correlation between consistency of minutes and consistency of scoring? Correlation, to refresh your memory, is a number between -1 and 1, indicating how closely related two variables are in either a negative or positive direction. A correlation over 0.5 is considered strong in the positive direction.

It is probably not surprising, then, that if we take all the players in the league we get a very strong correlation of 0.79 between consistency of scoring and consistency of minutes. This is a very strong correlation, but not all that useful since we already know that players who don’t play much are less consistent than those who play regularly (in other words, if a guy is so consistent, he’d probably be playing more anyways). It’s a lot more useful to break the players down into groups based on their MPG. So here is what we get:

Looking at those numbers above, one can make a good argument that guys who get the most consistent minutes score more consistently. Even for players who play less than 10 minutes per game, there is a moderate correlation. It’s really intriguing when you look at the 30 or more category. We might assume that guys who are playing 30 or more minutes must be pretty consistent as a group to earn that kind of time, but the numbers show that the more consistent their burn the most consistent their scoring is.

So, are you surprised by any of the names on the list or the results?