Wild Wild West

Posted by HoopsAvenue on September 25, 2008 under General NBA, Houston Rockets, LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, San Antonio Spurs | Read the First Comment

You may have seen the poll that we’ve been running lately asking who will win the Western Conference.  Well, the results are in and they are a bit surprising.  The Lakers managed to take home 44% of the vote, followed by the Rockets at 18%, Other at 15%, the Hornets and Spurs at 11%.  I presume Other refers to teams like the Jazz, Mavs, Suns, and, of course, homers.  Now, it’s not surprising that the Lakers win this poll given they are the defending Western Conference champions, but it is surprising by how much they won.  They got more than twice as many votes as the 2nd-place Rockets.  So, are they that good with Bynum or are the fans just a bit overly optimistic?  Here’s how I rank the top four teams in the West:

1. Lakers – I do give the nod to L.A., but just barely.  With a healthy Bynum and the duo of Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, there’s no reason for the Lakers to not be competing for the trophy again this season.  It won’t be so easy, though, because even though the Lakers should be better, their competition will also be better, and that brings us to #2.

2. Hornets – The Hornets got better this summer by bringing in James Posey from the world champion Celtics.  Posey gives New Orleans that defensive stopper they’ll need to get far in the post-season.  Chris Paul is still going to give other teams fits and now that the Hornets have some playoff experience, they’ve got a good shot to survive the West.

3. Rockets – The Rockets enter the season with a great upside, but also a great downside after their acquisition of Ron Artest.  Artest, a gritty defender and third scorer, looks to be exactly what Houston needs, but he could bring chemistry problems as well.  Not to mention, T-Mac and Yao will need to be healthy come playoff time.

4. Spurs – The Spurs are aging and, like the Rockets, they have some questions of their own.  They’ll need Manu Ginobili to recover from his ankle injury and come back at full strength.  The regular season is not San Antonio’s forte, but they do know how to win in May and June so don’t count them out.

Who do you think will win the West?

Also, check out the new poll which asks who will win the East!

The 5 People Happiest About Team USA Winning Gold

Posted by HoopsAvenue on August 24, 2008 under Olympic Basketball | Be the First to Comment

After the Disaster in Athens in 2004, Team USA has pretty much hit rock bottom, but now they’ve gotten the gold medal back and everyone surrounding the team is ecstatic. But, we thought it would be interesting to single out the 5 people who are the happiest about getting the gold back. Here’s the list.

5. Doug Collins – Doug’s son, Chris, is one of Coach K’s assistants on the Team USA staff and has said he’d be giving his gold medal to Doug who was cheated out of his own gold medal in the disputed 1972 Olympics. Doug, you finally got your gold medal, now stop talking about a game that happened 36 years ago!

4. Coach K – Just before Team USA went down in Athens in 2004, Coach K had turned down the Lakers, opting to continue coaching in the college ranks. Now, with a gold medal in hand, Coach K has quieted at least some of his doubters that he couldn’t coach a bunch of superstar millionaires.

3. Lebron James – All the players are happy about winning gold, but it’s extra important to Lebron as he won’t have to hear “Lebronze” anymore. That’s one nickname you’d rather not have.

2. Jerry Colangelo – Jerry assembled the team and it was always his goal to be seen as some sort of evil basketball genius. Well, you got your wish, Jerry.

1. Kobe Bryant – This one unfolded perfectly for Kobe. He didn’t play in 2004 or even in the 2006 World Championships, and he was the star of the gold medal game. The way it looks is that Kobe is the secret ingredient, like he’s Mr. Miyagi in his prime or something, the master of basketball excellence.

Who would you add to the list?

Does NBC Even Care About Olympic Basketball?

Posted by HoopsAvenue on August 20, 2008 under Olympic Basketball | 2 Comments to Read

I’ve got no problem with NBC promoting Michael Phelps and Shawn Johnson as the best thing since sliced bread…they’ve had an amazing Olympics, but what’s with the treatment of Olympic basketball?  Not televising any of the pool play in primetime is understandable, but now they aren’t going to show the medal round live at a reasonable time?  If you want to catch tomorrow’s USA-Argentina semi-final showdown and you have a full-time job, you’re going to have to make up an excuse to get out of work.  The game starts at 10:15 AM ET.  This is single elimination against a team the USA has lost to the last two times they’ve faced each other!  Want to watch the gold medal game?  If you’re on the east coast, have fun staying up to 4:30 AM to watch the entire game.

It’s almost bizarre how little coverage the Redeem Team is getting.  You’ll have no problem seeing Lebron James and Kobe Bryant watch some beach volleyball or watch Michael Phelps in the pool, but to watch them actually play basketball?  No, how horrible!  At least, that’s what NBC seems to think.  They don’t even bother to show any of the day’s basketball highlights or give any scores in primetime.  Have you seen a basketball score during their primetime coverage?  Let me know if you have because I haven’t, nor have I seen a highlight.  Sure, a hoops game takes two hours so you don’t have to show the whole thing, but could you spare us a few minutes?  Come to think of it, you showed an entire marathon a few nights ago!

Of course, whoever made the Olympic schedule deserves a great deal of the blame as well (though, I’m sure NBC had a hand in that).  It’s not like the schedule is completely booked either.  Swimming, gymnastics, and to some extent track are compelling events and deserve their coverage, but diving, distance track events, and all the filler tear-jerker clips?  No offense to any of those athletes, but I’m just asking for a little hoops coverage!

Clippers…still Cursed

Posted by HoopsAvenue on July 9, 2008 under General NBA, LA Clippers | Be the First to Comment

Just days ago Clipper fans across the globe (or, more realistically, across some areas of LA) were contemplating how far the Clippers might go in next season’s playoffs. Today those fans are hearing that Elton Brand is planning to leave the franchise for The City of Brotherly Love, a move that, no matter how unexpected, can’t be that surprising to fans of the NBA’s most cursed franchise.

The Clippers were a laughingstock in the 90s and haven’t fared too much better this decade despite short bursts of hope. It seemed LA’s 2nd team was finally turning the corner when they went 45-37 and qualified for the playoffs in 2005-06. The Clips couldn’t build on that momentum though and failed to make the playoffs each of the past two seasons, with Brand missing almost all of last season. Still, this didn’t look like your 90′s Clippers as the franchise enticed Baron Davis back to his hometown just a week ago. Sure, they’d lose Corey Maggette, but every team has financial constraints and a Davis-Brand combo could be lethal. But, now it looks like we’ll never see that 1-2 punch with Brand bolting for Philadelphia.

A look back at recent Clippers history:

• Clippers draft Darius Miles 3rd overall in the 2000 NBA Draft. No high school player had been picked as high in the draft before. He played 2 seasons with the Clippers, never averaging more than 10 points a game.
• In the summer of 2004, Kobe Bryant flirts with the idea of jumping ship to the Clippers before re-signing with the Lakers.
• Clippers draft Shaun Livingston 4th overall in the 2004 NBA Draft. To date, he’s missed 101 of 246 regular season games due to injuries.
• Elton Brand ruptures his Achilles tendon in August 2007 and misses nearly the entire 2007-08 season.

Just another day for Clippers fans.

Should Kobe ever be compared to Jordan again?

Posted by HoopsAvenue on June 19, 2008 under General NBA, NBA Playoffs | Read the First Comment

Will Kobe ever be compared to Jordan again? Yes, of course. That’s what the media does.

Should he? No, probably not.

The biggest reason is that Jordan never really had an Achilles heel. His biggest weakness was probably that he was not a good three point shooter, but he always found other ways to score no matter who was guarding him. And, his intangibles were always in a league of their own. Kobe, on the other hand, has at least two Achilles heels: his inconsistency in inspiring his teammates and bad timing when it comes to taking over the game.

Let’s look at the cold hard facts. Kobe and the Lakers have now lost two consecutive Finals series and both times his team didn’t even show up for half the series. In 2004, it was Kobe’s selfishness and the Lakers’ overall lack of respect for the Pistons (the Malone injury didn’t help either) that did them in. Now, in 2008, Kobe has matured a bit, but you still have to question his leadership when a team falls flat on its face in the most important games of its season. No, it is not all Kobe’s fault, not by a long shot, but ask yourself if Michael Jordan would ever lose a Finals game by 30+ points. He never did. The most a Jordan-led Bulls team ever lost by in the Finals was by 21 to Seattle in 1996. Oh, and that was a Game 4 with the Bulls up 3-0.

With all that said, Kobe is still the best player in the game. You can make good arguments for a few other players (Pierce is creeping up there), but I would still put Kobe at the top of the list. He’s now got a good supporting cast and has a good chance to return to the Finals next season, but we’ve seen that he doesn’t quite have the it factor that Jordan did. Jordan would take over a game before it got out of hand. Kobe should have done that last night, but he didn’t. He should have never allowed himself to get so out of rhythm in Game 4 either despite the big lead. We know Kobe has the ability to take over, but his timing just seems off sometimes. Jordan seemed to know when to take over a game. He understood the idea of momentum a lot better than Kobe does. Last night I got the feeling that Kobe never really got worried until it was too late. I don’t think he gave up, but he had the memory of coming back from 24 down in Game 4 in the back of his head and by the time he felt a sense of urgency, there was no way to stop the Celtic onslaught. He underestimated the determination of KG, Pierce, and company. This was simply not a game you were going to overcome a big deficit.

Kobe might become a better leader and he might get a better feel for when to take over a game, but after last night, his legacy simply cannot live up to Jordan’s. Even if he wins six titles, three of them would have been with Shaq. That, plus the black scars on his legacy from 2004 and 2008 preclude him from being mentioned alongside Jordan as the Greatest Ever. He may be Jordan’s equal as far as talent, but Jordan had that innate intangible that Kobe is still learning on the job.

Do consistent minutes make a player consistent?

Posted by HoopsAvenue on June 16, 2008 under NBA Stats | 2 Comments to Read

“He’s their most consistent player.”

It’s a quote you hear rather often watching NBA telecasts. Usually it seems pretty accurate and its hard to argue with, but do our eyes deceive us? I decided to take a look at who the most consistent players in the league really are. And, then I’ll analyze whether or not coaches can make their team more consistent by playing their guys consistent minutes.

First, a word on the methodology. If you ever took statistics, you’ve heard of the standard deviation (SD), and, everyone knows what an average is. Well, if you took even more statistics, you might have heard of the coefficient of variation (CV), which is simply the SD divided by the average. The CV tells us how widely dispersed a sample is, or, on the flip side, how consistent it is. A low CV means the sample is consistent. The useful property of the CV, for our purposes, is that it can be compared between players even when their averages aren’t close (ie. Lebron James‘ scoring consistency can be compared to Kwame Brown‘s), and, thus, we can use it to rank every player in the league in terms of consistency.

So, without further ado, here are the 10 most consistent scorers in the 2007-08 regular season:

As you probably would have guessed, the highest scorers are generally the most consistent scorers as they can count on their shot attempts from game to game while role players take what they can get. It would be very unlikely a player could average, say 10 points per game, and consistently do that every game. Kevin Garnett and Andre Iguodala, though, stand out a bit given their lower averages, relatively speaking. If a longer list were listed, you would see that Chris Kaman is the only guy in the top 30 who averages less than 15 PPG.

And, now here are the 10 players who get the most consistent minutes:

So, interestingly, there is an overlap of two players who are on both top 10 lists (Andre Iguodala and Lebron James). Of course these players are both stars and you would expect them to rank in at least the top 30, but it’s curious why other stars aren’t ranking. Kevin Martin, for example, was the 7th leading scorer this season, but ranked only 44th in scoring consistency. Could this possibly have something do to with the fact that he got only the 29th most consistent minutes in the league? Would Kings coach Reggie Theus get more consistency out of his top scorer if he were to give him more consistent minutes? Not surprisingly, the injury-prone Tracy McGrady ranked the least consistent scorer of anyone averaging over 20 PPG.

This all leads us to the question of whether or not coaches would be wise to play their players on a more consistent basis to get more consistent scoring output. What is the correlation between consistency of minutes and consistency of scoring? Correlation, to refresh your memory, is a number between -1 and 1, indicating how closely related two variables are in either a negative or positive direction. A correlation over 0.5 is considered strong in the positive direction.

It is probably not surprising, then, that if we take all the players in the league we get a very strong correlation of 0.79 between consistency of scoring and consistency of minutes. This is a very strong correlation, but not all that useful since we already know that players who don’t play much are less consistent than those who play regularly (in other words, if a guy is so consistent, he’d probably be playing more anyways). It’s a lot more useful to break the players down into groups based on their MPG. So here is what we get:

Looking at those numbers above, one can make a good argument that guys who get the most consistent minutes score more consistently. Even for players who play less than 10 minutes per game, there is a moderate correlation. It’s really intriguing when you look at the 30 or more category. We might assume that guys who are playing 30 or more minutes must be pretty consistent as a group to earn that kind of time, but the numbers show that the more consistent their burn the most consistent their scoring is.

So, are you surprised by any of the names on the list or the results?

Celts PG Issue Could Cost Them

Posted by HoopsAvenue on June 12, 2008 under Boston Celtics, NBA Playoffs | 2 Comments to Read

What would you do if your Doc Rivers? You can either stick with Rajon Rondo or give more minutes to Eddie House and Sam Cassell. Each of the three come with major liabilities. So, here’s the breakdown:

• Rajon Rondo – He’s the best out of the three at running the offense, but everybody knows he can’t\won’t shoot. It reminds me of Avery Johnson when he was on the Spurs. Eventually Avery hit a few jumpers and the Spurs were able to win the ’99 Championship. If Rondo can knock down a few shots, the Celts would be on their way, but the smart money says he isn’t going to bother shooting them. The real problem is that the Lakers are putting Kobe on Rondo and just letting Kobe roam on D. Not everyone thinks Kobe is a great defender, but I think most would agree he is great when he has the opportunity to roam. I don’t think the Celts can afford to play Rondo in crunch time.

• Eddie House – House is clearly the best shooter out of the three, but his ballhandling is shaky, very shaky. For good reason, Doc Rivers is uncomfortable having House on the floor as a point. However, Ray Allen is a decent ballhandler and it would make sense to go with a backcourt of House and Allen on occasion. This is a pretty good option when the Lakers start exploiting Rando’s lack of shooting.

• Sam Cassell – Unfortunately for the Celts, Sam is not the man he used to be. It’s a wonder he gets any minutes at all. I’d keep him on the bench.

Conclusion – There’s no good solution here, but I would give House more minutes late in the game and let Allen do some of the ballhandling. Every possession gets so important late in the game and having to play 4 on 5 only amplifies the pressure on The Big 3. House would make their lives a whole lot easier.

What would you do?

Zen the Master

Posted by HoopsAvenue on June 10, 2008 under NBA Playoffs | Be the First to Comment

38-10.  That was the free throw disparity last night.  38-10 in the Celtics favor.  Now, Kobe, if you ignore sarcasm, “didn’t notice it,” but Phil Jackson was less politically correct talking about how his team will have to do a better job creating “illusions” for Game 3.  Illusions, after all, are what the referees make calls based on, argues Jackson.  You’ve gotta love the Zen Master.  Every post-season, especially in the Finals, he creates the best in-between-game story lines.   The best thing about his quotes is that they aren’t just vociferous rants, but they actually hold quite a bit of substance and truth to them (Yes, Sacramento is basically a cow town, get over it, Kings fans).

Let’s break down the genius of the Zen Master here.  First off, instead on a Mike Ditka-esque tirade, he brings up the idea of how referees are influenced by the crowd noise, intensity of the teams, and other intangible factors.  He is right.  Referees are refereeing an illusion, but nobody ever brings it up that way.  Coaches might rant about how the fans get in the ref’s head and other cliches ad nauseam, but to label it an illusion somehow adds some sort of intrigue to the criticism.  Subconsciously, the Zen Master has just created his own illusion that the referees are too weak-minded to objectively call the game.  He’s called into question their ability to block out distractions and do their job.  It’s almost a subtle challenge.  Whether or not it’s the right time to bring up the point with 3 straight home games coming up, though, is up for debate.  Regardless, maybe the Lakers ought to show up for the first 40 minutes of the game.