swing team (noun)

1. a team that is “good on paper,” but regularly falls short of expectations
2. a team that relies on 1 or 2 players with a history of injuries
3. an unproven team with a lot of talent, but little experience

So, here are 5 swing teams for the 2008-2009 season

1. Toronto Raptors – After a .500 season last year, the Raptors decided to mix things up a bit and traded T.J. Ford for Jermaine O’Neal.  O’Neal, of course, is a former all-star, but missed half of last season due to injury and put up just average numbers when he was on the floor.  Then, there’s 22-year old Andrea Bargnani who has lots of potential, but is coming off a sophomore slump.  Raps fans are hoping JO is his healthy old self and Bargnani blossoms.  If that happens, the Raptors will do some damage.
2. Denver Nuggets – A lot of fans were scratching their heads when the Nuggets basically gave Marcus Camby away to the Clippers this off-season, but maybe their roll of the dice will pay off.   Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony are still a scary duo and maybe Anthony’s gold medal in Beijing will rub off on his teammates.  For the Nuggets to swing upward, they need those two to play well and as a team, plus some help (and health) from Camby’s replacement Nene.
3. Washington Wizards – It’s the same old story for the Wizards.  Injuries, injuries, injuries.  Remember this is the same team that was in 1st place in the East in 2007 at the All Star break before injuries decimated them.  They’ll start off without Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood, but a cast of youngsters along with Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will try to hold down the fort until 2009.  It seems unlikely, but if everyone gets back to 100% this team could swing in a big way.
4. Miami Heat – Coming off a 15 win season, there’s only one way for Miami to swing, but they could really surprise some people.  They’ll need Dwyane Wade to stay healthy and for Michael Beasley to make an immediate impact.  Shawn Marion needs to play up to his capabilities as well.
5. Houston Rockets – Talk about a swing team!   The Rockets two stars Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming are two of the league’s best talents, but have spent more time with ice packs than they have on the floor the past few seasons.  Add the combustible Ron Artest to the mix and that’s like adding vinegar to baking soda.  Unbelievably, the Rockets could realistically win the Finals or see their best 3 players injured and suspended by December.

Unfortunately there’s no voting when it comes to swing teams or we’d all be stuffing the ballot boxes….all we can do is sit back and watch.  Any predictions?

The poll results for Eastern Conference champion closed out like this: Other 48%, Celtics 25%, Cavs 15%, Magic 8%, and Pistons 5%.  Hmm, looks like we’ve got either a bunch of pranksters or homers in this one as its hard to believe almost 50% of the fans would pick a team other than the Celts, Cavs, Magic, or Pistons next season!  Maybe we’re just underestimating the Knicks, though, who knows?

Anyways, what about the supposed top 4 teams.  Well, here’s how I’d seed them:

1. Boston Celtics – The Celts are a bit older, don’t have as much motivation, and lost a key player in James Posey, but they’ve still got the Big Three and will obviously be a force to be reckoned with.  They’ve got to be considered the favorites to get back to the Finals, but if I could take the entire field vs. the Celtics, I would.
2. Orlando Magic – Orlando had the 3rd best record in the East last season and Dwight Howard is still getting better (scary!).  Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis also give them a lot of versatility.  This team is primed to be in the hunt and don’t be surprised to see them make 1 more move during the season to make that championship push.
3. Detroit Pistons – The Pistons are probably getting tired of falling short, but I expect that to continue next season.  The same cast of characters is back which is still a good thing, but it might be time to shake things up a bit.  I wouldn’t count out a team with Chauncey Billups, though.  Detroit’s plan should be to aim for homecourt in the playoffs and then maybe things will break their way.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers – Now, this is an interesting team.  The big question is whether or not Mo Williams is the sidekick Lebron needs.  Larry Hughes was supposed to be that guy a few years ago and obviously that never panned out.  Another thing working in the Cavs favor is the desperation of their management to keep Lebron James happy with his free agency coming up in 2010.  Big Z doesn’t have too many years left so a big move this season might be necessary to keep Lebron happy, and it might help them win the East.

It would certainly be a surprise to see another team win the East, but there are some longshots.  The 76ers, after acquiring Elton Brand, are on the radar, but you still don’t get the feeling they are Finals ready.  Then, you’ve also got the Wizards who have one of the best Big 3s in the league, but once again injuries are threatening their chances.  Even Toronto with a frontline of Chris Bosh and hopefully (for them) a healthy Jermaine O’Neal could be a contender.

Who do you think will win the East?

Boston Celtics

Jeff Clark: CelticsBlog.com

Jim Weeks: Green Bandwagon

FLCeltsFan: LOY’s Place

John Karalis: Red’s Army

Dustin Chapman: Celtics 24/7

New Jersey Nets

Dennis Velasco: About Basketball

New York Knicks

Joey: Straight Bangin’

Seth Rosenthal: Posting and Toasting

Philadelphia 76ers

Dannie & Pete: Recliner GM

Jon Burkett: Passion and Pride

Toronto Raptors

Franchise: RaptorsHQ.com

Ryan McNeill: Hoops Addict

Cuzzy: Cuzoogle

Also see links to all the previews at CelticsBlog.com

Sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher that the Pacers and the Raptors have agreed to a deal that, pending review of medical information, would send Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto in exchange for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the No. 17 pick in Thursday’s NBA draft.

More players will be involved ultimately to match salaries and the trade can’t actually go down until July 9th because of Ford‘s contract situation, but let’s break it down.  O’Neal only played half a season last year due to injuries and he wasn’t as productive as he has been in the past.  He only averaged 13.6 points and 6.8 rebounds.  The Raptors are obviously hoping he bounces back and puts up about 18 and 8 which he had been capable of.  So, it’s a risky move for Toronto, but it’s no safe bet for Indiana either as Ford is also injury prone.  Ford, though, when healthy, is a solid point which is what Indiana was looking for in the draft anyways.  Now, Indiana has the opportunity to draft another position in tonight’s draft while crossing their fingers that Ford stays healthy next season.

Basically, here’s how it breaks down for Toronto:

• Pros: If Jermaine O’Neal returns to something resembling his all-star form, the Raptors immediately have one of the best frontcourts in the league with JO and Chris Bosh.  Jose Calderon has shown he can be a solid PG too so the Raps could do some damage in the East.
• Cons: If JO doesn’t work out, Toronto is left with his big ol’ contract for the next two seasons and a team that won’t contend.

For Indiana, it’s a little bit less risky

• Pros: They pick up the 11th and 17th picks in the draft, a decent center in Nesterovic and a good PG in Ford if he remains healthy.
• Cons: Well, if Ford gets hurt again and O’Neal is a star again the Pacers will regret it.

All in all, the trade seems to favor Indiana as they’re acquiring some draft picks to possibly turn their franchise into a contender in a few years.  It’s a safer, long term plan.  Toronto, on the other hand, is putting a lot of chips down on O’Neal who is unlikely to be enough to advance far in the playoffs even if he has a great season.

Who do you think got the better of this deal?