How good are NBA GMs at drafting players?
June 30, 2008
Gilbert Arenas. Carlos Boozer. Michael Redd.
What do all those players have in common? Well, in case you had forgotten (which would be hard for a serious hoops fan to do considering how constantly we are reminded), they were all selected in the 2nd round of the NBA Draft and are now bonafide stars. Compare those three with the likes of number one overall selections Kwame Brown and Michael Olowokandi and you might think NBA GMs don’t know what the heck they are doing. We agree that some don’t, but after analyzing the drafts since 1995, we have to say they are doing a pretty good job overall.
We took a look at the 2007-08 PER (Player Efficiency Rating) for each player drafted since 1995 and this is what we saw:
That trend line you see is the logarithmic regression. We won’t get into all the details, but basically that just shows you the overall trend as the draft progresses. As you can see, the top picks have paid great dividends despite the occasional busts that we pointed out earlier. The PER drops off considerably throughout the first 10 picks or so, then it levels off. By the time you get out of the draft lottery (past pick #14 or #13 depending on the season), it’s becomes more of a crapshoot. Players picked 15th will do better on average than players picked 30th, but not by much. Considering this, it makes a lot of sense to package a few lower picks and try to trade for a top pick, if possible. What are the odds your GM is really able to acquire a few solid players late in the draft? Doesn’t look likely.
Drafting is not a science, though, and I’m sure a lot of you have noticed some potential flaws in our chart by now. Let’s point them out:
- Looking at 2007-08 PER only is misleading. It’s true we are only looking at the most recent season’s PER so we are discounting the value of players who have seen better days. This makes our chart also a measure of longevity in some respects, but, to be fair, we did look at a chart for players drafted recently (since 2004) and the same pattern emerged. Also, we didn’t look at 1991-1994 because there are few players from those drafts still in the league.
- PER is not an accurate measure of a player’s value. True, there is no one statistic that can tell us the value of every player in the league, but we think PER is pretty good and while some players will be overrated and some underrated, it will average out in the long run.
There are probably some more flaws, but we don’t think the overall pattern would change much no matter how you look at it.
If you were a GM, what would your drafting strategy be?
NBA Draft Blogging
June 26, 2008
#1. Chicago - Derrick Rose. No surprises here.
#2. Miami - Michael Beasley. Well, Pat Riley didn’t seem particularly enthused by the pick, but surprisingly he kept his hands off and let the team choose Beasley.
#3. Minnesota - O.J. Mayo. No surprise that Mayo is drafted here, but we were looking for some kind of trade. C’mon, Kevin McHale, couldn’t you liven things up a bit?
#4. Seattle - Russell Westbrook. Whaaaat? I don’t think anybody saw this coming. Jerryd Bayless was #4 on just about everybody’s mock, including this one. So Seattle might end up looking like geniuses here or maybe we find out the owner was out to spite Sonics fans for making moving the team such a hassle.
#5. Memphis - Kevin Love. We thought Memphis would go big, but didn’t expect Love to go this soon with the questions surrounding his athleticism. We shall see.
#6. NY Knicks - Danilo Gallinari. Haha, you gotta love the Knicks taking a European player in the lottery. You can cue the boos when that happens since nobody knows who the guy is.
#7. LA Clippers - Eric Gordon. Good pick for the Clips. Jerryd Bayless is slipping.
#8. Milwaukee - Joe Alexander. Bucks fans should at least have some hope after acquiring RJ earlier today and now getting a guy who might be ready to contribute on Day 1.
#9. Charlotte - DJ Augustin. I guess Larry Brown thinks Augustin “plays the right way”.
#10. New Jersey - Brook Lopez. Along with Yi, the Nets now have acquired 2 7-footers on the same day.
#11. Indiana - Jerryd Bayless. Bayless has now been traded to Portland. So now Portland has a good point prospect, the Rookie of the Year, and Greg Oden in the middle next year. Blazer fans should be pumped.
#12. Sacramento - Jason Thompson. Kings fans should expect Thompson to be ready to rebound and play D on day one, but he might not be ready offensively.
#13. Portland - Brandon Rush. Traded to Indiana. I’ll be he would rather be with the young and promising Trailblazers, but the Pacers have some young pieces of their own so don’t fret too much, Brandon.
#14. Golden State - Anthony Randolph. I thought Randolph would be off the board by now. The Warriors are getting a bargain.
Other Notables
#19. Cleveland - J.J. Hickson. The freshman from NC State has seen his stock rise in the past few weeks, but he’s going to have to help out ASAP if the Cavs want to be an attractive option for Lebron when he becomes a free agent.
#27. New Orleans - Darrell Arthur. You gotta feel bad for Darrell Arthur having to wait all the way until the 27th pick to get drafted. That was worse than Brady Quinn. At least the NBA doesn’t take as long between picks or Arthur would still be waiting there.
Bucks Trade Yi for Richard Jefferson
June 26, 2008
According to SI,
The Milwaukee Bucks have agreed in principle to trade Yi Jianlian to the New Jersey Nets for Richard Jefferson, two league sources told SI.com.
It seems the Nets are absolutely making way for Lebron James when he becomes a free agent. And, Yi gets a chance to play in a big market that he really wanted to. The Bucks certainly improve, but they’ll need more than RJ to be a factor in the East. We’ll have more on this tomorrow.
Jermaine O’Neal Traded to Toronto
June 26, 2008
According to ESPN,
Sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher that the Pacers and the Raptors have agreed to a deal that, pending review of medical information, would send Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto in exchange for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the No. 17 pick in Thursday’s NBA draft.
More players will be involved ultimately to match salaries and the trade can’t actually go down until July 9th because of Ford’s contract situation, but let’s break it down. O’Neal only played half a season last year due to injuries and he wasn’t as productive as he has been in the past. He only averaged 13.6 points and 6.8 rebounds. The Raptors are obviously hoping he bounces back and puts up about 18 and 8 which he had been capable of. So, it’s a risky move for Toronto, but it’s no safe bet for Indiana either as Ford is also injury prone. Ford, though, when healthy, is a solid point which is what Indiana was looking for in the draft anyways. Now, Indiana has the opportunity to draft another position in tonight’s draft while crossing their fingers that Ford stays healthy next season.
Basically, here’s how it breaks down for Toronto:
- Pros: If Jermaine O’Neal returns to something resembling his all-star form, the Raptors immediately have one of the best frontcourts in the league with JO and Chris Bosh. Jose Calderon has shown he can be a solid PG too so the Raps could do some damage in the East.
- Cons: If JO doesn’t work out, Toronto is left with his big ol’ contract for the next two seasons and a team that won’t contend.
For Indiana, it’s a little bit less risky
- Pros: They pick up the 11th and 17th picks in the draft, a decent center in Nesterovic and a good PG in Ford if he remains healthy.
- Cons: Well, if Ford gets hurt again and O’Neal is a star again the Pacers will regret it.
All in all, the trade seems to favor Indiana as they’re acquiring some draft picks to possibly turn their franchise into a contender in a few years. It’s a safer, long term plan. Toronto, on the other hand, is putting a lot of chips down on O’Neal who is unlikely to be enough to advance far in the playoffs even if he has a great season.
Who do you think got the better of this deal?
Should the NBA change its Age Limit?
June 25, 2008
With this year’s NBA Draft coming up tomorrow night, it’s a good time to take another look at the league’s age limit. The age limit, which was insituted in 2006, requires players entering the NBA to be at least 19 years old and one year removed from high school. Rumors have been flying that the age limit might actually be increased to 20 years old, but this isn’t likely until at least the 2010-11 season when the current collective bargaining agreement is up. So, how has the age limit impacted the NBA and is it good for the league?
Well, for starters, let’s look at the college freshman who were chosen in the lottery since 2006:
- Tyrus Thomas, 4th pick, 2006
- Greg Oden, 1st pick, 2007
- Kevin Durant, 2nd pick, 2007
- Mike Conley, Jr., 4th pick, 2007
- Brandan Wright, 8th pick, 2007
- Spencer Hawes, 10th pick, 2007
- Thaddeus Young, 12th pick, 2007
So do these guys look like they were any more prepared than the fresh out of high school players from earlier in the decade? Not really. You’ve got a mixed bag like you get every year with the rookie class. Durant was the only guy out of those who really put up good numbers right away. A year before, Martell Webster and Andrew Bynum were the two players who jumped straight from high school and were selected in the lottery. Bynum is developing nicely while Webster is not doing bad for himself either. So it doesn’t look like a year of college is really developing these players all that much (though it is doing a good job marketing them at no cost to the NBA).
Stern, of course, would argue that the rule is helping keep “busts” from ruining their college eligibility. Of course, these “busts” are probably going to go play overseas anyways rather than using their degree. It seems far-fetched to imagine a player ready to declare for the NBA, but then being required to go to college for a year where he learns he isn’t that good and soon he is feverishly studying engineering to prepare for a drastically different type of career. I’d bet that not-so-good player is going to play in Europe instead, make good money over there, and possibly getting a shot at the NBA again.
The age limit is probably good for business though. The NCAA does a great job marketing the NBA’s prospects and the Draft is a lot more interesting when you actually recognize most of the players. So, despite the fact that it seemingly should violate labor laws, has no noticeable impact on the quality of players entering the league, and doesn’t prevent “busts”, the NBA is ecstatic that its fans already know that Michael Beasley is a beast, that Derrick Rose might be the next Dwyane Wade, and that Kevin Love already has haters.
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NBA Mock Draft
June 24, 2008
Here’s the obligatory 2008 NBA Mock Draft (the lottery picks, at least):
- Chicago Bulls - Derrick Rose. All indications are that the Bulls favor Rose over Michael Beasley.
- Miami Heat - Michael Beasley. There are rumors abound that the Heat may trade down to #3 and draft OJ Mayo, but that all depends on whether or not Wolves GM Kevin McHale is in as generous of a mood as he was last summer when he traded KG.
- Minnesota Timberwolves - OJ Mayo. We expect Mayo to be selected, but keep an eye on the Wolves to make a trade or perhaps draft Italy’s Danilo Gallinari here.
- Seattle Supersonics - Jerryd Bayless. It looks very likely Seattle will add another scorer to their roster.
- Memphis Grizzlies - Brook Lopez. The Grizzlies have a number of options here, but look for them to add the 7-footer, then try to address some of their other positions later in the offseason.
- New York Knicks - Eric Gordon. Expect a pleasantly surprised crowd at MSG if the Knicks announce this one.
- LA Clippers - Russell Westbrook. The Clippers would prefer Gordon fall to them, but look for them to take a guard regardless.
- Milwaukee Bucks -Anthony Randolph. The Bucks will pounce on Randolph if he’s available.
- Charlotte Bobcats - Joe Alexander. His size and shooting touch make Alexander a great pickup for Charlotte at #9.
- New Jersey Nets - Danilo Gallinari. Gallinari could easily be off the board by the time the Nets pick, but if he isn’t, they’ll grab him.
- Indiana Pacers - DJ Augustin. The Pacers are hoping a solid PG will be on the board when they’re up and we expect that guy to be Augustin.
- Sacramento Kings - Darrell Arthur. The Kings would like to address the PG spot, but would take the PF Arthur as the best player available if neither Augustin or Westbrook fall to them.
- Portland Trailblazers - DeAndre Jordan. Jordan would be the best player available at this spot, but the Trailblazers already have so many young pieces they very well could trade this pick.
- Golden State Warriors - Kevin Love. Love’s stock has dropped a bit, but don’t expect him to fall past #14.
Your thoughts?
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