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Will the USA Win the Gold?

August 10, 2008

After beating China handily 101-70 in their opening game at the Beijing Olympics, its time once again to assess Team USA’s chances at getting the gold.  A 31 point victory against an improved Chinese team is no doubt impressive, but Team USA also showed that it is not immune to the same problems that dogged them in the 2004 games.

Once again, dismal three point defense kept Team USA’s opponent in the game in the first half and USA failed to hit outside jump shots.  China shot 10-27 from downtown, which is not overly impressive, but they shot a much higher percentage in the first half before they were worn down by Team USA.  Deeper and more skilled teams will have a good chance at knocking down 40%+ of their threes against Team USA.  USA did not shoot well either or, more accurately, they didn’t really try to shoot all that much, opting to dunk instead.  The game showed two distinct styles…Team USA had alley-oop after alley-oop in transition while China was knocking down threes.

Despite these issues, Team USA is still much improved from 2004 and is still the favorite to win gold.  This team is not selfish like the 2004 version was, has a better roster, and understands international play a bit better.  One big difference from 2004 is this team understands that you cannot count on getting “in the act” fouls called so they did not try to draw fouls around the basket.  Instead of creative up-and-under layups, Team USA just went up for aggressive power dunks near the basket and it paid off.  They didn’t dribble into trouble as much either.  One of the biggest nuances of international play compared to NBA play is that you have about 1 less dribble per move before you get into turnover trouble and Team USA is doing a much better job at not dribbling too much.

So, my prediction?  I wouldn’t be surprised if the USA loses a game, but I’m going to predict they do go undefeated and win the gold again.

How do you think Team USA will fare?

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Written by HoopsAvenue · Filed Under Olympic Basketball 

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